Climate Adaptation UK: Summer 2025
Welcome to our May/June/July edition of the Climate Adaptation newsletter. Hope you have your cup of (iced) tea ready, because it’s a monster. Edited by Mirte Boot.
🌡️ THE HIGH LINE: Bone Dry England
The climate crisis has arrived on Britain’s doorstep with unprecedented force. Ed Miliband delivered what he hopes will become an annual "state of the climate" address to the UK parliament on Monday against a stark backdrop: 2025 brought the hottest spring since records began and the driest in more than 130 years, and the summer has brought no relief. The Secretary of State for Energy’s call for "radical truth telling" about climate impacts came as the Met Office's 2024 climate report (published on 14 July 2025) confirmed what adaptation professionals have long been warning about: extreme weather events are now "an integral part of the UK's climate," with temperature and rainfall extremes becoming the norm rather than the exception.
The convergence of impacts reveals a system under strain. This week, the National Drought Group meeting confirmed that the East and West Midlands have joined Yorkshire and the Northwest in official drought status. This year's harvest teeters on a "knife's edge" according to the Nature Friendly Farming Network, with potential for the worst yields on record as drought-stressed crops face mounting losses. The pattern exemplifies the climate 'whiplash' we've explored previously - an exceptionally wet autumn delayed crop drilling, leaving plants more vulnerable to the current drought conditions. Meanwhile, Yorkshire's reservoirs have plummeted to just 55% capacity and Thames Water has announced hosepipe bans from July 22nd. As Miliband framed it, tackling this challenge has become "a deeply British cause" - not for environmental reasons alone, but for the preservation of our way of life itself.
Key Reading:
Met Office confirms climate baseline shift: The 2024 State of UK Climate report is a treasure trove of data, showing that 2024 saw the wettest winter on record followed by the driest spring in 132 years, with the Met Office warning that "extreme weather events are to be expected each year"
Four English regions are now in official drought: The National Drought Group confirmed deteriorating conditions since early June, with the East and West Midlands joining Yorkshire and the Northwest in drought status, while three more areas entered "prolonged dry weather" classification - the most widespread drought declaration in recent years.
Government fast-tracks reservoirs: Ministers warn of water shortages "within a decade" and expedite planning for new reservoirs in Cambridgeshire and Lincolnshire (completion 2036-2040), with new legislation making reservoirs nationally significant infrastructure - marking the first new reservoir construction since 1992.
Yorkshire's Reservoirs Half Empty: Reservoir levels dropped from 63% in May to 55% in June with summer still ahead, prompting hosepipe bans, while Yorkshire Water still loses 260 million litres daily through leaks
Heatwaves now 100 times more likely: World Weather Attribution analysis finds UK summer heatwaves are 100 times more probable due to climate change, with Dr Friederike Otto calling it "totally insane" for political leaders to call for more fossil fuels as heat becomes the UK's deadliest weather hazard, particularly for over-65s.
Vast majority of UK farmers worried about climate change: New ECIU research reveals 85% of UK farmers have been impacted by extreme weather, with the wet winter of 2023/24 alone causing £1 billion in losses through 20% wheat crop reduction. 49% of farmers express high concern about the next generation's ability to earn a living from farming as climate impacts intensify.
🏣 UK ADAPTATION: POLICY UPDATES SUMMER 2025
The big ones:
Climate Change Committee; UK adaptation progress "Inadequate": The CCC's April report delivered a stark verdict: UK preparations are "inadequate" with no meaningful progress since 2023. The assessment found failure across every infrastructure type - transport, energy, communications - with not a single outcome scoring "good." Baroness Brown, chair of the adaptation sub-committee, says she is seeing "no change in activity" from Labour compared to the previous government, and warns the current approach is putting the country at risk.
Spending review allocates £4.2bn for flood defences: June's spending review brought cause for cautious optimism with £4.2 billion for flood defences and £2.7 billion for sustainable farming through 2028-29. While insurers welcomed the commitment, questions persist about adequacy, given the escalating risks. The government's Fiscal Risks response, published on the same day, identifies flooding and extreme heat as priority areas. Uncertainty remains about how aid budget cuts will affect COP29 climate finance pledges.
Cabinet Office publishes national resilience action plan: After 12 months of development, July's resilience plan sets out the UK's strategic approach to complex risks including pandemics, cyber attacks, and climate change. The plan establishes three objectives: continuous threat assessment, whole-of-society approaches, and strengthened public sector resilience.
CCC emission progress report published: The CCC's July emissions report makes a far-reaching recommendation to "reorganise adaptation policy to make adaptation a fundamental aspect of policymaking across all departments." The report emphasises the importance of strengthening NAP3 and accelerating tree planting and peatland restoration. The upcoming Land Use Framework, expected late 2025, will be critical for integrating adaptation with mitigation, food security, and nature recovery.
OBR Fiscal Risks and Sustainability July report: The OBR included a detailed chapter on the impact of various climate scenarios on the public finances in the future. ‘The total damage costs result in borrowing at 2.1% of GDP higher than baseline in 2073-74 in a below 2°C scenario, and 4.3% of GDP higher in a below 3°C scenario (Chart 4.6). The cumulative impact of this increased borrowing would be to raise public sector net debt compared to our baseline projection by 31% of GDP by 2073-74 in the below 2°C scenario, and by 56% of GDP by 2073-74 in the below 3°C scenario.’
The small ones:
Environmental Audit Committee concludes flood resilience Inquiry: Flooding Minister Emma Hardy and Environment Agency CEO, Philip Duffy, gave evidence in July's final session. Full report expected autumn 2025.
Environment Agency climate adaptation (fourth round) report published:The Environment Agency published its climate adaptation report for England, laying out progress and remaining risks on adapting the organisation’s work to climate change.
New House of Commons Library adaptation briefing: New briefing shows infrastructure planning advancing but nature-based solutions and health sector preparedness lagging significantly.
Government launches crisis preparedness tools: A "risk vulnerability tool" has been developed for 10,000 civil servants to better deal with resilience risks, using real-time data to identify vulnerable groups during crises like extreme weather. Not publicly available.
Adaptation Scotland publishes 2024 progress report: Adaptation Scotland's annual progress report highlights examples of successful place-based initiatives and the launch of ‘adaptation.scot’ as a one-stop information hub.
New ISO standard on security and resilience: to help cities plan for shocks such as climate and the pandemic
Key Consultations Open: There are currently at least two government consultations live with an adaptation angle, including a consultation on transition planning for financial institutions (closing 17 September), which includes the option of requiring adaptation planning from businesses and a consultation on Northern Ireland’s Third Climate Adaptation Programme, seeking views on NICCAP3 (closing 4 August).
🎓 MACC Hub update
ICYMI, the Maximizing Adaptation to Climate Change Hub put out a call for proposals on transformational adaptation solutions, with a max award of £55k per project. You can find more details here. Deadline for EOIs is the 8th of August.
MACC is also highlighting the CCC’s call for evidence for the Well Adapted UK component of its fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) - noting that the CCC’s deadline to submit is (a summer-holiday-friendly) 29th of August.
📚 WHAT WE ARE READING
Key climate adaptation and resilience updates of the summer. Arranged by topic:
Must read of the month: Adapting to climate change: A roadmap for government action": Green Alliance's new adaptation report provides a succinct framing and clear policy recommendations to tackle the adaptation challenge in the UK. It shows how failure to adapt will undermine the government's growth and security missions - through lost productivity, failing infrastructure, and voter backlash from overheated homes and disrupted services. Essential roadmap with practical recommendations including an 'adaptation test' for all government spending and targeted interventions for highest-risk areas.
💰 FINANCE & INSURANCE
Every $1 spent on adaptation returns $10: World Resources Institute analysis of 320 adaptation projects across 12 countries reveals the "triple growth dividend" of resilience investments. Despite a massive annual funding gap of up to $359 billion, every $1 spent on adaptation delivers over $10.50 in benefits within a decade, with individual investments producing an average 27% rate of return. The Thames Barrier exemplifies this approach, enabling East London's development boom alongside flood protection.
"Meltdown": How climate change could trigger the next financial crisis: The FT's Pilita Clark explores uninsurable assets as a systemic risk, sparking wider financial instability. US Fed Chair Jay Powell warns that within 10-15 years, "there are going to be regions where you can't get a mortgage. There won't be ATMs [and] banks won't have branches." UK implications could be as flood-prone areas face similar insurance withdrawal risks.
The Insurability Imperative: New Howden report introduces their climate insurability framework, arguing insurability is becoming a proxy for financial health in a climate risk world.
US Insurers double profits despite record disasters: US insurers have quietly doubled earnings since 2023 despite $320 billion in global disaster costs - one third higher than the previous year. Insurers offset losses through an "aggressive push" for premium increases, demonstrating how climate costs are being passed to consumers.
NGFS launches 2030 climate scenarios: Network for Greening the Financial System releases first short-term climate scenarios for financial institutions, offering financial institutions a free tool on how climate events and policies may disrupt economies by 2030.
Business adaptation roadmap published: New World Business Council for Sustainable Development guidance, developed with 70+ global business leaders, provides a 4-step roadmap to identify and prioritize physical climate risks and adaptation solutions.
New Adaptation Finance Gap briefing: New E3G briefing examines different financing sources - public, private, innovative, and debt challenges - highlighting where progress stands in addressing the adaptation funding shortfall.
New VC Fund launches: "The best adaptation investments won't call themselves climate companies. They're just solving problems people will pay for because they have to" says Darren Clifford, founder and managing director of Adapt [us] Capital, explaining why his new fund will be looking beyond traditional “climate tech” to find opportunities. Read the full interview on TheAdapt newsletter.
What on earth is NQH2O? It’s the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index, of course, which tracks the spot price of water rights in California, offering ‘a transparent, market-based measure of water value in one of the world’s most water-stressed and agriculturally productive regions.’ Read water specialist investor, Mazarine Climate’s, expaliner here.
🌱 NATURE
UK Salt Marshes vital carbon stores: New WWF report shows UK salt marsh grasslands "breathe in" more carbon dioxide in summer than they release in winter, while providing biodiversity benefits and natural flood defenses.
Climate Change reshaping UK marine life: First-of-its-kind study systematically examines effects of rising sea temperatures on 19 threatened species in UK waters, including basking sharks and corals. Research shows overall northward migration as southern waters become less viable, with mobile species benefiting if they can relocate.
Wales Leads on urban forest planning: Newport plans to cover a quarter of the city with tree canopies within 10 years. Wales becomes the first country to measure urban tree coverage using nationwide aerial photography, setting an example for urban adaptation strategies.
🏡 BUILDINGS & INFRASTRUCTURE
UK Built Environment Roadmap published: The UKGBC released the first guidance of its kind on how the built environment can increase resilience to climate hazards, including interactive vulnerability and urban heat web maps. Key findings are that UK schools, care homes and offices are not adapted to extreme heat, with London and south-east schools facing 10 weeks of extreme heat annually by 2100. The report calls for a minister for resilience and mandated climate adaptation measures in urban planning.
80% of UK Homes Overheated in Past Decade: New study reveals four fold increase in overheating compared to the previous decade, with seven times more air conditioning use. Study authors warn of heat risks after 2022 heatwaves killed 4,500 people, highlighting the need for better communication and home retrofit programmes.
🏥 HEALTH
Building a Climate-Resilient Health System in the UK: New UK Health Alliance on Climate Change report provides seven recommendations for climate-resilient healthcare, covering funding, infrastructure, and workforce. The report shows how the NHS will face threats from various sources including heat, supply shortages, and infectious diseases.
British Mozzies: West Nile Virus Discovered in UK Mosquitoes: Scientists warn that increased UK temperatures will make the country more hospitable to mosquitoes transmitting diseases like dengue fever, with potential for epidemics in the second half of the century. Researchers call for UK investment in disease control in tropical countries to prevent future outbreaks.
New Parliamentary Briefing on Climate and Health: Short overview of current state of climate and health policy in the UK, providing MPs with essential background on health system preparedness for changing climate conditions.
🔺 TIPPING POINTS
“From ice age to frying pan”: new study on AMOC Collapse: New modeling of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse would mean Europe faces extreme winters followed by normal summer temperatures from a “freezer to a frying pan”." Professor Lenton warns "adapting to this would be a monumental challenge," emphasising more monitoring and research is needed.
Sea level rise demands urgent action even at 1.5°C: New Nature Communications study warns of "catastrophic inland migration" from climate change, as ice sheet loss has quadrupled since the 1990s. While 1-2 meter rise appears inevitable - threatening the Fens and Humberside in the UK - a Guardian editorial offers some perspective: "People will adapt to sea level rises as they have in the past... stress[ing] the importance of preparing for changes which are now inevitable."
🌊 COMMUNITIES & RESILIENCE
Reform UK-Led Councils scrap climate programmes: Derbyshire County Council, now controlled by Nigel Farage's party, cancelled its climate change committee and climate-related meetings, while Lincolnshire County Council scrapped its flood management scrutiny committee. Derbyshire experienced widespread flooding with Storm Babette in 2023, damaging 1,600 homes and businesses.
And yet: 8 Out of 10 Flood-Prone Constituencies leaning towards Reform UK: New Global Witness analysis shows constituencies where Reform UK is projected to win have the highest percentage of properties at flood risk compared to any other party. The findings echo the Public First report from our last edition, highlighting disillusionment with government in repeatedly flooded communities.
UK Local Authorities Making Progress on Climate Action: New CDP report shows 96% of UK local authorities now have climate plans, up from 58% in 2018, and covering more than half the population. Councils have identified £67 billion in potential investments but nearly half can't afford to act. Examples include Manchester City Council retrofitting social housing and Brighton replacing streetlights with LEDs.
First London Surface Water Strategy Published: Led by the Flood Ready London Partnership, the strategy, which was developed through local consultations, trails "surface water catchment partnerships" to help get funding for practical storm overrun solutions.
🔒 SECURITY
Former military leaders: Climate must be part of national security: Retired army and navy leaders urge the government to broaden national security definition beyond military capability to include food, energy, water security, and community protection from flooding, extreme heat, and sea level rise. Spain allocates 17% of its €23bn military budget to climate resilience programmes - a model the UK could follow.
🌎 INTERNATIONAL
UN Climate Conference Focuses on Adaptation Progress: The intersessional mid-year UN climate conference held in Bonn in June included key discussions on adaptation implementation and financing gaps.
European Commission Invests €86 Million in Climate Resilience: New investments target water security projects in Denmark, Estonia, Poland, Slovenia, and Iceland.
Weathering the Storm: Trump's Environmental Agency Cuts: Nature's hard-hitting editorial in June examines far-reaching effects of the US cuts to environmental agencies and climate data capabilities. They warn "These actions affect a core principle of modern society: good governance requires good data, and good data requires trained experts and free discourse”. The devastating floods in Texas have already sparked warnings about weather forecasting budget cuts hampering the ability to respond.
Africa's Climate-Resilient Agricultural Revolution: New TBI report outlines how climate-resilient innovation can drive agricultural transformation across Africa. As climate impacts decrease yields, the report argues agricultural innovations represent an opportunity for governments to lead a new resilient agricultural revolution.
☁️ WEATHER WATCH
European heat dome: Intense heat dome settled over Europe in recent weeks, with temperatures reaching the mid 30s in the UK and a shocking 46c in Spain. Samantha Burgess of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts noting "our background level of climate change is the warmest it's ever been"
Driest conditions in 130+ years: Following the wettest winter on record, spring 2025 became the driest in 132 years and the hottest since records began.
📆 EVENTS
Last month was an extremely busy one for climate nerds, with London Climate Action Week & the Global Tipping Point Conference in Exeter. You can read a great Linkedin round-up of LCAW here and of the Tipping Points conference here.
And one for the diary: The Shift Conference will take place on 30th-31st October in Dusseldorf, Germany); a corporate Climate Adaptation conference. Early ‘save the date’ now live.
💭 FINAL THOUGHT
This Summer’s final thought comes from our brilliant Ed Robinson:
Keynes warned that markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The climate adaptation challenge reveals a similar paradox: we can understand systemic risk intellectually while acting as if it doesn't exist.
Consider Mark Carney - the "central banker of his generation," so praised for dragging climate stress-tests into the banking mainstream, but now as Canadian PM tripling down on fossil fuel investments. Or the US insurance sector, simultaneously warning of existential threats while having quietly doubled its earnings since 2023 "as price rises exceed extreme weather claims." As Jay Powell told Congress, "If you fast forward 10 or 15 years, there are going to be regions of the country where you can't get a mortgage. There won't be ATMs [and] banks won't have branches." Central bankers. Still the masters of understated prescience.
I liked a rallying cry from John Robinson (no relation) at Mazarine Capital’s LCAW event on Monday 23 June, offering what might be adaptation's mission statement: "The task for all of us, no matter where in the playground we find ourselves, is to persuade “elite climate” that for every $10 it spends on mitigation, it should spend at least $1 on adaptation."
And there was also this from the Rainforest Alliance’s CEO’s Santiago Gowland: "Whether you are working to save the planet or destroy it, our destinies are the same." To misquote Hegel, "it's a funny old world".
PS - Do you like our work and would you like to fund us? At the moment we’re heavily reliant on volunteers. But we’re looking for ways to grow our staff and to deepen our impact. Get in touch via edward@landclimate.org if you’d like to chat!