February News Digest
Welcome back to the revamped AdaptationUK newsletter! January 2025 was a scary month. Here are the top stories.
🌡️ THE HIGH LINE
The devastating LA wildfires that blazed across vast swathes of the Los Angeles metropolitan area dominated international headlines throughout January, providing a harrowing start to 2025. The twin infernos in the Palisades and Eaton Hill consumed more than 40,000 acres and destroyed more than 12,000 structures, forcing 100,000 residents to flee their homes. Most tragically, at least 29 lives were lost, with total financial losses estimated to reach a staggering $50 billion.
While investigations into the fires' origins continue, climate scientists point to how changing climate conditions have manufactured an environment where such disasters become both more likely and more severe.
Key Reading:
Climate Induced fire risk: LA's devastating fires seem to fit emerging ‘climate whiplash’ patterns - extremely wet winters in 2022-23 fuelled vegetation growth, followed by a record dry spell recording just 0.16 inches of rain versus the more normal average of 6.19 inches.
Warning Signs for UK Adaptation: LA's fire service budget cuts of $17.6 million came just months before disaster struck - a sobering lesson for UK emergency services given the 2022 London fires that stretched services to their limit. Fire Chiefs’ alarmed warning about reduced emergency response capacity went unheeded. It has since been followed by a warning from the UK's National Fire Chief's Council, who called on 3rd Feb for the UK government to "take urgent action."
Insurance Markets Tipping Points: Climate disasters are forcing a fundamental rethink of property insurance in high-risk areas. As one analyst notes, "If you can't afford insurance anymore, or can't even buy a policy, you may have to sell your home", foreshadowing potential tipping point(s) for property markets.
Uneven Impact, Uneven Recovery: Beyond headlines about wealthy residents hiring private firefighters, research reveals a complex inequality picture. "What we often see is uneven [post-disaster] redevelopment," notes sociologist Miriam Greenberg, highlighting how rebuilding costs, insurance access and regulations create barriers for lower-income residents long after media attention fades.
🏣 UK ADAPTATION: POLICY UPDATES
Several major government reports published this month signal a growing focus on adaptation across different sectors:
We were delighted to attend the online launch of the Maximizing Adaptation to UK Climate Change (MACC) hub, a new Defra/UKRI-funded multi-actor project aiming to ‘establish the enabling conditions necessary for transformative adaptation across the UK.’ The Hub is run out of King’s College London and led by Dr Helen Adams. You can find out more at the hub’s website here. The partners are listed here. The Attenuate programme (‘Creating the enabling conditions for UK climate adaptation investment’) will focus on unlocking private sector funding for climate adaptation and is led by the Grantham Institute at LSE in collaboration with the Environment Agency, Green Finance Institute, Love Design Studio, Paul Watkiss Associates and the University of Bath.
Flood Risk Reality Check: An Environment Agency report in December set out a stark warning - over 6 million homes at flood risk, potentially rising to 8 million by 2050. This is 1 in 4 homes and a 40% increase at the same time as flood protection budgets are being cut, creating a critical gap between escalating risk and diminishing resilience.
Identifying ‘no regret’ adaptation options: A DESNZ commissioned report by CS-N0W identifies nature-based approaches as offering the highest co-benefits for adaptation and mitigation. The analysis provides a crucial evidence base for ‘no regret’ actions, particularly in soil conservation and public sector buildings.
Space Agency Vulnerability: UK Space Agency launches first-ever climate adaptation review for the space sector, exploring potential impacts on this vital infrastructure and beginning the process of understanding adaptation needs.
Biodiversity-Climate Nexus: New House of Lords report explores critical interconnections between biodiversity loss and climate change, emphasising the need for an integrated approach to both challenges.
📚 WHAT WE ARE READING
🎇 2024 ROUND-UPS
Must Read of the Month: Come Hell and High Water: Global Adaptation Gap 2024: UN's most comprehensive adaptation assessment yet reveals a critical financing shortfall precisely when implementation should be accelerating. The report provides an essential framework for understanding the global adaptation landscape and implications for UK strategy.
A Year of Heat and Havoc: This Global Centre for Adaptation's 2024 analysis shows all ten hottest years occurred within past decade. UN Secretary General António Guterres warned of "climate breakdown in real time."
Water Cycle in Crisis: The Annual Global Water Monitor quantifies the staggering costs of climate-induced precipitation disasters: $550 billion in damages, 8,700 deaths, and 40 million displaced. Experts warn that current infrastructure designed for 20th-century extremes is no longer sufficient.
UK Public Opinion Shifts: A Yale study revealed that 86% of UK residents acknowledge climate change as a reality. Independent polling shows three-quarters think the UK is unprepared for flooding and other climate impacts, with just one in six believing country is making good progress on adaptation.
💰 FINANCE & INSURANCE
Financial System at Climate Risk: Following three years of data analysis across global markets, the Financial Stability Board warns climate disasters could increasingly trigger market panic. Analysis shows how localised events could cascade through global financial systems. Full report here.
Property Insurance Woes: UK property claims hit £5.5bn in 2024, the highest since the 2007 floods. Industry experts warn of fundamental shifts in risk assessment as climate impacts accelerate.
Financial Conduct Report: New adaptation report by the Financial Conduct Authority examines specific challenges facing financial services firms, setting a framework for sector-wide resilience.
🍔 NATURE & FOOD SYSTEMS
Hidden Costs of Biodiversity loss: After three years of analysis by 165 scientists, IPBES calculates the true cost of economic activity at $10-25 trillion annually when including ecosystem impacts - a quarter of global GDP. These previously unaccounted costs include impacts like agricultural chemical inputs degrading water quality downstream.
Nature-Based Solutions Expand: New projects announced including Merseyside's £430,000 wetland for flood management and The National Trust's ‘London size’ nature restoration project.
🏡 BUILDINGS & INFRASTRUCTURE
Heat Adaptation Imperative: DESNZ housing report warns that most UK bedrooms could breach 26C overnight by 2030s. Findings demand an urgent retrofit strategy incorporating Mediterranean-style adaptations, such as shutters and air-conditioning.
Property Values at Risk: New Bank of England report predicts 300,000 homes could lose 20% of their value due to flood risk. Analysis suggests property market is beginning to price in climate vulnerability.
Major Water Investment: The Government approves £7.9bn for nine new reservoirs, including Cambridge and Oxford projects, addressing growing water stress through to 2050.
🏥 HEALTH
Climate-Health Integration Gap: A new LSE Study based on 42 expert interviews in the UK reveals limited practical integration of climate and health policies. Research highlights opportunities to use the NHS to scale adaptation efforts, and calls for enhanced cross-sector coordination and dedicated resources. Full paper here.
🔺 TIPPING POINTS
Ocean Tipping Point Early Warning System: ARIA announces £81 million funding for advanced monitoring of Atlantic Ocean tipping points. The focus is on subpolar gyre system using robot sensors and real-time data collection to track ocean currents, temperatures, and ice melt rates.
Climate Whiplash Accelerates: Research finds a 31-66% increase in extreme wet-dry transitions, known as ‘climate whiplash’ since the mid-20th century. Scientists warn transitions between extremes will more than double under 3°C of warming, challenging infrastructure designed for 20th-century conditions. Academic paper here.
🌍 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Spain Pioneers Climate Leave: Groundbreaking law provides four days paid leave during climate disasters, following criticism of company responses during the recent deadly Valencia floods.
Botswana Sets Adaptation Metrics: Botswana is the first country to include numerical adaptation targets in NDC, with over 50 specific metrics including automated weather stations, drought mortality rates and public building resilience measures. Approach praised as 'laudable' model for other nations.
EU ‘Stress Tests’ Climate Readiness: Plans launched for hot weather 'stress test' on railways and power grids. France leads the way as the first member state to begin national testing for 4°C scenario.
☁️ WEATHER WATCH
New Year Started Stormy: Multiple cities including Blackpool, Newcastle and Ripon cancelled their 2025 New Year fireworks displays after amber warnings were issued for heavy rain across North West England.
Scotland was battered by Storm Éowyn: Historic 100mph winds leave devastating impact, with two deaths and 2,000 households still without power. Storm Eowyn was the first red warning for Northern Ireland since coloured weather warnings began in 2011.
Major Incident in Somerset: Out West, Storm Herminia forced the emergency evacuation of over 100 people, with widespread flooding and infrastructure damage.
Met Office Warns of New Normal: Three-month forecast predicts increased ‘storm clustering’ throughout February, marking a shift from isolated events to the rapid succession of storms, requiring an urgent rethink on possible adaptation measures.
📆 UPCOMING EVENTS
Key Events:
Past (recent) and upcoming events
Key Deadline: The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment call for evidence closes 31st March 2025. Crucial opportunity to shape national adaptation strategy.
💭 FINAL THOUGHT
“It’s time to let go of the illusion that we can stop the damage stone dead at its source, and instead pivot towards protecting ourselves from the impacts we can no longer avoid, crucially while doing so in low-carbon ways”. This stark message from a leading XR activist on the 1st of January 2025 reflects growing recognition that adaptation can no longer take second place to emissions reduction. As this month's developments show, the challenge now is matching this understanding with accelerating action.
Always thinking ahead,
Team AdaptationUK