What's new in climate adaptation?
Read our summary of all the news from February, including our pick of the best events and seminars in March.
š”ļø THE HIGH LINE
UK Food Security "Precarious" as Climate Change Transforms Agriculture
February brought significant new research highlighting the UK's vulnerability to food system shocks. Most saliently, the National Preparedness Commission has published a landmark 380-page report evaluating a question often sidestepped by policymakers: How prepared is the UK public for a food security crisis? The answer, according to City University Professor Tim Lang's extensive research, is sobering. The UK's food security is in a "precarious" state, with a resilience framework still based on post-World War II systems that are "dangerously outdated" and "no longer fit for purpose."
The report, which drew lessons from 10 countries and included over 70 interviews focusing on frontline practitioners outside Whitehall, calls for urgent reforms including a shift from 'just in time' to 'just in case' logistics frameworks. While the findings are concerning, the report emphasises that "resilience offers optimism". It notes that food security is often seen as something to avoid engaging the public on - "don't frighten the horses" - yet argues that there is also a responsibility to communicate these risks, as few consumers are conscious of how complex and vulnerable food flows really are.
Key Reading:
7 Steps to Narrow the UK Civil Food Resilience Gap: The National Preparedness Commission's report includes 15 key recommendations, from establishing a Food Security and Resilience Act to creating a National Food Security Council. Drawing on 70+ interviews and lessons from 10 countries, it provides the most comprehensive assessment yet of UK food system vulnerabilities and solutions. Full report here.
Mapping Tomorrow's Crops: University of East Anglia researchers project how climate change will transform UK agriculture by 2080, finding that the southeast and East Anglia may become less suitable for crops like wheat and strawberries, while the country could potentially grow new crops like oranges, chickpeas, and soybeans. "The climate will change, so arable farming must become more resilient. One way of doing this is through growing crops more suited to new conditions," notes lead author Dr. John Redhead. Paper here.
Hot Chocolate: New data show that global cocoa and coffee prices have surged 163% and 103% respectively due to changing rainfall and temperature patterns in producing regions. These dramatic spikes represent early warning signs of how climate change will increasingly disrupt global food systems, with potentially severe implications for affordability, availability, and social stability in importing nations like the UK.
š£ UK ADAPTATION: POLICY UPDATES - FEB 2025
Aid Budget Cut Likely to Threaten Climate Finance: UK aid budget cut from 0.5% to 0.3% of GDP to increase defence spending raises concerns about climate finance commitments. "Let's be clear this can be life and death for struggling communities," warns Gareth Redmond-King of ECIU, as experts question UK's ability to deliver on COP29 pledges. The announcement lacks clarity on how cuts will affect climate finance specifically.
Record Ā£2.65 Billion Flood Investment: Defra commits Ā£2.65 billion to protect 66,500 homes across 1,000 projects, including investment in major schemes like the Ā£43 million Bridgwater Tidal Barrier and Ā£35 million Derby Flood Risk Management initiative. The Association of British Insurers (ABI) continues to call for continuous spending, including a guaranteed Ā£1 billion annually from 2026.
Fourth Round of Climate Change Adaptation Reports Published: A major collection of climate change adaptation reports has been published by various government and arms-length bodies, as required under the 2008 Climate Change Act. Reports span aviation, energy, environment, heritage, ICT, local authorities, marine, ports, road, rail, space, and water sectors.
Climate Change Committee's 7th Carbon Budget Published: The UKās national 'carbon budget' for the five-year period from 2038 to 2042 has been published, with key pathways for UK decarbonisation. Section 5.3 highlights the need to integrate adaptation with emissions reduction to avoid risk lock-in, maximize co-benefits, and minimize unintended consequences. The report emphasises the importance of ensuring new net zero infrastructure is climate-resilient.
Natural Flood Management Evidence Update: Environment Agency publishes first update since 2017 to its key directory on natural flood management. It shows woodland can slow floodwaters by up to 50%, while delivering multiple co-benefits. Findings highlight effectiveness of combined approaches, including saltmarsh and mudflat restoration.
"Eager Beavers" Return to Waterways: New Defra policy paper sets framework for the wild release of beavers across England, with support for farmers, landowners, and communities. Initiative designed to create natural flood defences, reduce flood risk, and boost biodiversity.
Flood Risk Mapping Upgraded: Environment Agency launches improved National Flood Risk Assessment (NaFRA) and National Coastal Erosion Risk Map (NCERM) after four years of development. New tools provide most detailed understanding yet of current and future risks, and you can check the risk of flooding for any postcode in England online.
š WHAT WEāRE READING
Your UK Adaptation news from February, by topic:
š° FINANCE & INSURANCE
Record Insurance Payouts from Climate Impacts: UK insurers paid out Ā£585 million for weather-related home damage in 2024, exceeding the previous record, set in 2022, by Ā£77 million. ABI data reveals 12 named storms - the most since 2015-16 - with insurers blaming "significant and consistent bad weather" for the record number of claims.
Risk Management Gaps: UK banks and insurers need to substantially improve climate risk management, according to UK regulator PRA. Despite governance progress, a new report finds "further progress is needed by all firms" to quantify and manage climate-related losses.
Catastrophe Bonds' Potential: New LSE research from February explores how specialized sovereign catastrophe bonds could complement traditional disaster risk finance tools, with particular relevance for developing countries facing climate impacts.
ESG āA Backlash to the Backlashā? Despite political and financial setbacks, long-term investors recognize that the financially material arguments for climate change rise above short-term politics. With climate impacts worsening and natural catastrophe damages more than doubling in a decade, some institutional investors, like pensions funds, are prioritising resilience, potentially shifting the ESG focus from compliance to action.
š± FARMING, FOOD & NATURE
Farmers Adapting at Scale: New UK government polling reveals two-thirds of farmers have already changed their business models in response to climate change, highlighting the agriculture sector's front-line adaptation response.
Private Sector Steps Up: McCain Foods increases financial support to UK farmers to Ā£30 million, specifically targeting climate resilience and flooding impacts for potato growers.
Earliest Spring on Record: The BBC Weather/Nature Calendar, which relies on citizens collecting data, documents the earliest-ever sighting of frog spawn in 2025, signaling increasing seasonal disruption. "It's the unpredictability which is the biggest threat," warns researcher Ms Marshall, noting potential mismatches in food chains as species respond differently to climate shifts.
Peatlands Under Threat: New University of Exeter research warns that peat (which contains more carbon than all the world's forests despite covering just 3% of land) faces existential threat from climate change. Even under moderate scenarios, huge areas of UK peatland will be unsuitable for peat formation from 2060 onwards. Under high emission scenarios, 97% of land becomes unsuitable, representing what Dr. Jonathan Ritson calls āa wake-up callā. Full paper here.
š” BUILDINGS & INFRASTRUCTURE
Rail Industry Adopts Climate Scenarios: The Rail Safety & Standards Board develops standardized climate projections to enable consistent approach to risk assessments, asset design and strategic planning across the sector, using RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.
Climate āRisk Trapā Research: New LSE research challenges the common assumption that physical climate risks (direct impacts) and transition risks (costs of moving away from fossil fuels) offset each other. The study shows both can actually increase simultaneously at local levels, as demonstrated in Kuwait, with important lessons for infrastructure planning everywhere.
š„ FIRE RISKS
Fire Chiefs Sound Alarm: The National Fire Chiefs Council has warned that the UK is ānot preparedā for the impacts of climate change. Standing at the frontline of the national response to extreme weather like wildfires, storms, and heatwaves, a new report by the NFCC warns that fire services lack the long-term forecasting mechanisms and sustainable funding to adapt, with the UKās 2022 heatwave alone causes a 300% increase in wildfires compared to the previous year.
Peatland Fires Driving Emissions: New Cambridge University research reveals that UK peatland fires account for 90% of fire emissions since 2001, despite representing only 25% of burned land area. These fires occur only when conditions are hot and dry. The affected peat can take centuries to regenerate. Full paper here.
šŗ TIPPING POINTS
Record January Heat Puzzles Scientists: January 2025 unexpectedly broke temperature records despite shift away from El NiƱo conditions, leaving researchers searching for explanations. "The specifics of exactly why 2023, 2024, and [start of] 2025 were so warmā are still being āpinned down," says NASA's Gavin Schmidt.
Cold UK in a Warming World?: The BBC has a deep-dive exploring growing scientific concern about North Atlantic currents (AMOC) slowing, potentially bringing freezing winters to the UK despite global warming. Over 40 leading scientists have signed an open letter warning of "greatly underestimated" risk.
Early Warning System Progress: New details on Ā£4.25 million ARIA-funded research at University of East Anglia to investigate marine ecosystem tipping points and develop early warning indicators for critical thresholds.
š COMMUNITIES & RESILIENCE
National Trust's Tree Pledge: 40,000 trees are being planted by the National Trust on Cornwall's South Coast, part of a broader commitment to plant 20 million trees by 2030, engaging families and children in climate resilience efforts.
Oxfordshire Charts Adaptation Course: Oxfordshire County Council has launched a comprehensive climate adaptation route map, including delivery plan with 82 measures and 15 priority actions to build local resilience.
š INTERNATIONAL
Passports to Escape Sinking Nation: The Pacific island of Nauru launches a citizenship-by-investment program with passports costing $100,000 going on sale. The aim is raise around ā¬60 million to fund the relocation of 12,000 Nauru residents threatened by rising seas.
Japan's Food Security Intervention: The Japanese government has released 250,000 tonnes of stockpiled rice to counter a 50% price surge in rice, driven by record summer heat. The Government highlighted this is a highly unusual market intervention, demonstrating the strain climate is putting on food systems.
āļø WEATHER WATCH
Wildfire Risk in Winter Scotland: A "Very high risk" alert issued in North and East Scotland despite cold temperatures was issued last week, with Scottish Fire and Rescue Service warning that "even when the weather is still bitterly coldā¦large volume of dead, bone-dry vegetation" create fuel for fires.
Wind & Rain āDanger to Lifeā Warnings: Amber alerts for wind and rain across Wales in mid-February, with the Met Office issuing danger to life warnings as 70mph gusts and torrential rain led to widespread flooding of homes and businesses.
š UPCOMING EVENTS: MARCH 2025
Pathways to Resilience webinars (10th-14th March, Online): Innovation Practice Groups series featuring 10 thematic sessions on key climate adaptation topics including health, land use, nature-based solutions, and critical infrastructure. Open to all and drop in-drop out; particularly relevant for those working in climate adaptation at local or regional government levels.
Digital Transformation in Climate Adaptation Webinar (14th March, 9:00-11:00 GMT, Online): Webinar exploring how digital tools can be used for climate change adaptation. Open to all.
Financing a Climate Resilient Scotland (18th March, Edinburgh): ClimateXChange & Scottish Government workshop open to adaptation finance & investment specialists.
Water and Climate Change: 10 Things You Should Know (27th March, 7PM, London): Public lecture on water-related climate impacts.
š FINAL THOUGHT
We close with a few words from Patrick V. Verkooijen, in his inaugural lecture as Ban Ki-moon āChair on Climate Adaptation and Governanceā at the University of Groningen, in February 2025. Verkooijen warns us of our reality: "We are stuck on this overheated and overheating planet, and we cannot go back. We are stuck in a world where each half-degree of warming can double the disasters. That's the math. That's the reality."
And yet, his message contains hope: "Adaptation is not a 'nice-to-have' but a jobs strategy, a growth strategy, an economic winner. With data showing every dollar invested in adaptation returning up to $10, the economic case strengthens alongside the humanitarian one.ā Finally, Verkooijen reminds us that
"The resilience revolution is here. The only question is whether we will embrace itāor pay the price for ignoring it."